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A 2°C average rise in global temperature by 2025 factors in a 1-3°C air temperature rise for South Africa.

This is expected to lead to

  • Reduction in seasonal rainfall of between 5-30% in SW parts of W Cape during autumn and winter and northern and eastern regions of the country.
  • Increased evapotranspiration by 5-15% projected throughout the region by 2050. This will immediately threaten water resources directly through lower runoff levels. Annual stormflow events to reduce by 2050 including crucial stormflow regions such as the Lesotho highlands.
  • Agricultural production to face challenges due to lower winter rainfall and increasing competition with urban water use. Heat stress also expected to reduce the productivity of certain perennial and annual crops and livestock.
  • Increasing mortality and incidence of infectious diseases respiratory complaints due to increased temperatures. Increased incidence of skin cancer, eye diseases and immuno-suppression due to exposures of higher ultraviolet levels.


It is predicted that the area of the South Africa prone to malaria could more than double in the next 50 years, and that 7.8 million people could be at risk, of whom 5.2 million did not previously live in areas at risk from malaria. 

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